Do or die time for the Rays down the stretch

I'm ready. Are you? 

The Tampa Bay Rays are getting ready to face a stretch that the team has never seen before.  For only the 2nd time in their history, the Rays are going into September in the middle of a playoff hunt.  But, it's a little different this year.  The Rays aren't trying to hold anyone off.  This year, they're chasing.

The good news: The Rays have a schedule favorable to make up ground.  The bad news: The Rays have a schedule that could knock them out of contention over the next 17 days. Three playoff teams. Seventeen games. Starting tonight, each pitch becomes do or die. Each at-bat takes on new meaning. There's no room for error. There's no room for mistakes.  The Rays are on the outside looking into a room where nobody wants them.

The next 17 days are going to be a roller coast ride for both the team and their fans.  This is still uncharted territory for the Rays.  They've never chased the way they're chasing now.  In the lean years, Rays' fans longed for a chance to chase a wild card berth.  

This team has the talent to pull together a nice run.  The question is: Can they?

Here are 5 things the Rays need to do to make that run:

1. Defense, defense, defense.  As each out gets magnified in this chase, the Rays can't afford to have the defensive lapses that have plagued them all season.  Last year, the defense was a big key to helping the pitchers.  This year, the defense seems to give the pitchers a little more work.  The return of Akinori Iwamura should help in the infield.  But, the Rays need to stay focused. Some of the defensive lapses seem to come from lack of concentration.

2. Deep starting pitching. If we start seeing a lot of Randy Choate, Brian Shouse, and Russ Springer then get ready to watch the Red Sox and Yankees in the playoffs.  The Rays need strong starts to set up the Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell combination in the late innings.  Scott Kazmir has looked like the Kaz of old lately. Now, the rest of the guys need to return to the dominant form that carried them to the World Series last year.

3. No more offensive slumps.  All year, the Rays have been battling slumps in their lineup.  Except for Jason Bartlett and Carl Crawford, all of the hitters have been streaky. That has to end now.  The Rays lineup needs consistent at-bats from everybody 1 to 9.  Last year, the Rays lineup looked like murderer's row every day.  This year, opposing managers have exploited weaknesses in that row each and every night.  It's time to shore it up and put some fear into the guy on the mound.

4. No off nights.  For some reason, the "off game" has plagued the Rays all year.  I'm talking about the games that they don't even seem to show up for.  Games where the other team's starting pitcher looks like Cy Young and the Rays are baffled from the get go.  There's no room for that kind of game any more.   There's no room for coasting through a game for the first three innings.  Each game counts. Each inning counts. Each at-bat counts.

5.  Get some breaks.  Let's be honest, the 2008 Rays seemed to get a lot of lucky breaks. Just ask the Red Sox fans, they'll tell you. While I believe you make much of your own luck, the Rays need a little bit of the charm now.  

The next 17 games aren't for the faint of heart. It's going to be a roller coaster ride that starts tonight.  We'll truly find out what this team is made of.

The number 36 is the key to unlock a Rays postseason

Many people asked me who I was  rooting for this weekend between the Yankees and Red Sox. To be honest, I don't really care who wins that series. For the Rays it's more important to keep their eyes on the team in front of them, instead of the team's their chasing.  That's because I believe the Rays will make the playoffs with 36 more wins, no matter what the Red Sox and Yankees do.

I know the 1st week of August is a little early to start talking "magic numbers" in baseball. But yesterday, Times writer Marc Topkin said he believes the Rays need to win 40 games to make the playoffs. To me, that number was a little bit high. Forty wins out of the next 54 games would put the Rays at 100-62 for the season. That would mean that either the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, or even another team would've won 99 games. Recent history suggests the wild card threshold isn't that high.

I went back 5 years in AL history and here's what I found:

Wild Card Wins
2008 Boston 95 
2007 NY 94
2006 Detroit 95
2005 Boston 95
2004 Boston 98

As you can see, the most wins for a wild card team in the American League in the last 5 years was 98 for the 2004 Boston Red Sox. It averages out to 95.4 wins a year for the wild card.  But, the wins for a team doesn't necessarily show the whole picture. It's also important to look at the the wins of the team behind them. This shows a much different picture.

2nd in Wild Card

2008 New York 89

2007 Detroit 88

2006 Chicago  90

2005 Cleveland 93

2004 Oakland 91

As you can see, the threshold becomes even lower.  Looking at that, the most games an American League team has had to win to make the playoffs is 94. The 2005 Cleveland Indians had the most wins of any team in that stretch and failed to make the playoffs. The average is 90.2 wins... so, history suggests 91 wins is usually enough to get the wild card.

The most wins ever for an American League wild card berth post-expansion was the 2001 Oakland A's who won 102 games. However, their closest competitor that year was the Minnesota Twins, who won only 86 games.

For the Rays this means if they win 36 games out of their next 54, they should make the playoffs.  That means .666 ball from here on out... 2 out of every 3 games. That may sound like a tall order, but last year the Rays played .750 ball in August.  A good run over the next couple weeks will go a long way in determining whether the Rays make the playoffs or not. 

Rays wins, not what Boston, NY, or Texas do is the key to the playoffs. They need to win the games in front of them and let the race play out. In the end, if the Rays win 96 games and miss the playoffs... all you can do is tip your cap to the Yankees and Red Sox and wish them well.