Rays shake off Saturday morning loss Saturday night

One sign of a good team is the ability to shake off a rough loss and come back and get 'em the next night. That's exactly what the Rays did last night at Safeco Field in Seattle. Instead of dwelling on "what could of been" the night before, the Rays took care of their own business and, thanks to the New York Yankees, got themselves within 1 1/2 games of the wild card lead. 

"Big Game" James Shields finally got some run support, gave it up, and then got some more... before turning it over to the bullpen to finish the job. The offense even tacked on some late runs to make sure that the Mariners didn't have any thoughts of another comeback.

Here are some things I noticed in the Rays 10-4 victory over the Mariners:

• Big Game and his runs. Run support has been a major problem for Shields this year. In fact, until last night, he hadn't won a game in 8 starts. While I understand the frustration, I still think Shields has some responsibility in his struggles. He still has a tendency to give up sloppy innings here and there... innings that come back to haunt him.  He gave up a couple of sloppy innings last night, but the offense picked him up.
  

• Longo/Pena combo.  Maybe it's just me, but these two are starting to get a little "toasty."  Nothing but good can follow when they're hitting homers in the same inning.
  

• More arms. The Rays are playing with an extra bullpen arm instead of a bench of a position player.  I really don't think it will be a problem unless someone gets a minor injury. The fact is, Joe Maddon hasn't used Joe Dillionaire much at all. Might as well use his roster spot for a pitcher.
  

• 4pm game. I, for one, am happy today's game goes down at 4.  These late night games can play havoc on my sleeping schedule.
  

Two new Rays become elder statesman for playoff run

As the Rays left St. Petersburg for Seattle, the roster only contained one player older than me: Brian Shouse. Tonight, before they play the Seattle Mariners in game 2 of the 3 game series, the Rays now have 2 more players older than me on the roster: Gregg Zaun and Russ Springer. I'm not saying these guys are old, but Springer was once traded for Jim Abbott, the one-armed pitcher. Zaun has been to the World Series once and that was before the Tampa Bay Devil Rays played their first game.

Both of these guys bring a wealth of big league experience to the team. Both have been many places and have seen many things. Arguably, the biggest thing they bring is veteran leadership to a team who is seemingly lacking in that department. Both guys will undoubtedly tell the Rays young players how hard it is to get to the postseason and how it's even harder to be successful in the post season.

Zaun is very familiar with the AL East as a whole. He's been in the division since 2004, so he knows exactly how to call a game against the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles.  He also provides an improved alternate at catcher as Dioner Navarro continues to struggle.

As for Springer, he's spent most of his time in the National League. He's coming from Oakland 4.10 ERA in 48 games. He's know for his feud with Barry Bonds a few years back.  He hit Bonds rather than let him hit a homer off of him while chasing Hank Aaron. Sounds like he's got a little fire that may do the bullpen some good.

I've been saying that the Rays need some *spark* or *fire* to really get going. Maybe these two guys are just what the doctor ordered. Unfortunately, we may have seen the last of "The Greatness that is Michel Hernandez" and Joe Dillionaire. Both were DFA'd this afternoon to make room on the roster.

The number 36 is the key to unlock a Rays postseason

Many people asked me who I was  rooting for this weekend between the Yankees and Red Sox. To be honest, I don't really care who wins that series. For the Rays it's more important to keep their eyes on the team in front of them, instead of the team's their chasing.  That's because I believe the Rays will make the playoffs with 36 more wins, no matter what the Red Sox and Yankees do.

I know the 1st week of August is a little early to start talking "magic numbers" in baseball. But yesterday, Times writer Marc Topkin said he believes the Rays need to win 40 games to make the playoffs. To me, that number was a little bit high. Forty wins out of the next 54 games would put the Rays at 100-62 for the season. That would mean that either the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, or even another team would've won 99 games. Recent history suggests the wild card threshold isn't that high.

I went back 5 years in AL history and here's what I found:

Wild Card Wins
2008 Boston 95 
2007 NY 94
2006 Detroit 95
2005 Boston 95
2004 Boston 98

As you can see, the most wins for a wild card team in the American League in the last 5 years was 98 for the 2004 Boston Red Sox. It averages out to 95.4 wins a year for the wild card.  But, the wins for a team doesn't necessarily show the whole picture. It's also important to look at the the wins of the team behind them. This shows a much different picture.

2nd in Wild Card

2008 New York 89

2007 Detroit 88

2006 Chicago  90

2005 Cleveland 93

2004 Oakland 91

As you can see, the threshold becomes even lower.  Looking at that, the most games an American League team has had to win to make the playoffs is 94. The 2005 Cleveland Indians had the most wins of any team in that stretch and failed to make the playoffs. The average is 90.2 wins... so, history suggests 91 wins is usually enough to get the wild card.

The most wins ever for an American League wild card berth post-expansion was the 2001 Oakland A's who won 102 games. However, their closest competitor that year was the Minnesota Twins, who won only 86 games.

For the Rays this means if they win 36 games out of their next 54, they should make the playoffs.  That means .666 ball from here on out... 2 out of every 3 games. That may sound like a tall order, but last year the Rays played .750 ball in August.  A good run over the next couple weeks will go a long way in determining whether the Rays make the playoffs or not. 

Rays wins, not what Boston, NY, or Texas do is the key to the playoffs. They need to win the games in front of them and let the race play out. In the end, if the Rays win 96 games and miss the playoffs... all you can do is tip your cap to the Yankees and Red Sox and wish them well.